A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
